| Felix Stalder on Wed, 2 Mar 2022 13:49:33 +0100 (CET) |
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| Re: <nettime> Russia lost the war already |
I think what can be said that whatever is going to happen is going to take a long time and the even longer for the consequences to play out. But whatever it is, the neoliberal post cold-war order (the period of most of our adult lifes) is over: both in the sense that the economy and politics are different things, and that trade fosters peaceful co-existence. Biden, in a way, said that early in this administration, when he spoke about the struggles of democracy vs autocracy.
One of the inadvertent consequences, at least from a German point of view, is that this could, indeed, hasten the energy transition. The greens were always against North Stream 2, and now it's dead. Their argument about energy as a geopolitical issue always fell on deaf (neoliberal) ears (see above). No longer. Even the liberals are now calling renewables "freedom energies". Given that the problem is going to last a long time, it might be enough time to push the energy system over the edge (in a good way).
But the number of uncertainties are very high and the willingness of the Europeans to involve themselves in this war (for very good reasons!) might, or might not, increase the chances of a likely escalation.
Should there be some light at the end of the tunnel, it's an indication how long and dark this tunnel is (and that we have been in it for a while already).
all the best. Felix On 02.03.22 11:17, David Garcia wrote:
"Andreas Broeckmann" wrote: Russia's war against Ukraine was lost from day one. The people in Russia must now decide how they want to get out of the mess their leadership created. Russia can never win this war. It will not be able to suppress the resistance of the Ukrainian people who, even if Russian troops were to occupy major parts of the territory, would continue to offer both civilian and armed resistance to this occupation. This resistance would not end. Much as I would like to believe this narrative, I fear it is wishful thinking. As Fiona Hill said in a MUST-READ interview in Politico. Putin may have a different vision of success other than mere occupation. "....he (Putin) may not have sufficient force to take the country for a protracted period. It also may be that he doesn’t want to occupy the whole country, that he wants to break it up, maybe annex some parts of it, maybe leave some of it as rump statelets or a larger rump Ukraine somewhere, maybe around Lviv. I’m not saying that I know exactly So what Putin wants isn’t necessarily to occupy the whole country, but really to divide it up. He’s looked at Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and other places where there’s a division of the country between the officially sanctioned forces on the one hand, and the rebel forces on the other. That’s something that Putin could definitely live with — a fractured, shattered Ukraine with different bits being in different statuses. Reynolds: So step by step, in ways that we haven’t always appreciated in the West, Putin has brought back a lot of these countries that were independent after the Soviet collapse back under his umbrella. The only country that has so far evaded Putin’s grip has been Ukraine. Hill: Ukraine, correct. Because it’s bigger and because of its strategic location. That’s what Russia wants to ensure, or Putin wants to ensure, that Ukraine like the other countries, has no other option than subjugation to Russia."Please read the full text.. It gives some idea of the extreme danger we are facing and how best to resisthttps://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/02/28/world-war-iii-already-there-00012340# distributed via <nettime>: no commercial use without permission # <nettime> is a moderated mailing list for net criticism, # collaborative text filtering and cultural politics of the nets # more info: http://mx.kein.org/mailman/listinfo/nettime-l # archive: http://www.nettime.org contact: nettime@kein.org # @nettime_bot tweets mail w/ sender unless #ANON is in Subject:
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