David Garcia on Wed, 25 Sep 2019 14:16:08 +0200 (CEST)

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<nettime> Supreme Court Rulling consequeces

Sorry nettime (press delete anyone who has a life and so is uninterested in
UK politics and related constitutional/Brexit shenaningans)  

Aside from the fascinating and (for sad folk *me*) important constitutional consequences of the rulling 
(its 25 pages and worth a look for its elegant argumentation in classic english legal prose--deeeeply sexy!). 
Patrice asked me if yesterday’s Supreme Court rulling whether would lead to the sacking/resignation of the Brexit 
"brain lord" Dominic Cummings or even the demise of unfunny comedy toffs Mogg and Johnson.

Sadly the answer is a resounding NO.

Beyond the sound and fury yesterda’s Supreme Court’s rulling Jonson is still popular in the country at large. And like Trump 
every defeat is turned into a victory as it strengthens the populist narrative that he is the people’s tribune fighting the elite 
establisment blah blah utter bat-shit but it still cuts through. The calculation is if he can weather the storm to an election then
he can capitalise on his "die in a ditch” pitch to win big.   

Whatever the pressure from within his own party Johnson will not sack Cummings as he is heavilly invested in his tactics 
for winning the election when it comes.  He hopes and believes that the combination of “do or die” (Biggles Defy’s the Swastika)
rhetoric combined with Cummings’ passion for Bismark and game theory (read his blog: https://dominiccummings.com
will deliver him a majority by repeating the approach that won the referendum. His faith in Cummings is not dented by broken institutions 
"move fast and break things” could have been coined for this bunch. It is an ethos in which failure is just seen as success by 
other means. So he will not sack him. At least not until beyond the election.   

From a strictly political position dont believe those who say that it changes nothing. Here are the main points..

To begin with Labor were able to conclude their annual conference on a high. There was real swagger in Corbyn’s speech enabling 
him to focus on attacking Johnson and diverting public attention away from a tricky start and internal divisions. Labor were looking at a  
difficult final day or two but now they avoiding thoes banana skins and return to Westminster with a “spring in their step”. 
Importantly the fact that the verdict of the judges was unanimous means that the government know that they are unlikely to be 
successful if they try other tricks or try to Prorogue again. And their bluf about defying the lae to short circuit the bill designed to 
force Johnson to ask for the extension is rendered far less likely
Finaly the fact that Parliament is in session will enable MPs who are  legal eagles to amend the legislation to make sure its watertight. 
as some people are worried that it was hastily drafted and might have some loop holes. This is vital as the only chance (and its still a long 
shot) of defeating Johnson is to force him to fail to get the UK out by the October deadline. Making him fail is essential to the hopes of the 
Remain resistance. 

Once the election kicks off (mid November is my guess) the question is whether Labor’s postion of *we’ll do a gentler version of 
May’s deal* and then put it back to the people to decide on the new deal or Remain…. is too complex for the age of hyper-polarisation, 
micro-targeting and sound bites.. where Cummings and co excel. 

But people continually underestimate Corbyn’s qualities as a campaigner he is much better on the “stump” than in interviews and his 
current rif of being the adult in the room (which he is) may yet cut through. There is also a strong chance that Johnson will wilt under scrutiny. 
Under the relentless heat of an election campaign there is a strong possibility that people will realise that he is.. well quite rubbish..

Lets also remember the ‘Momentum” factor. I was at the The World Transformed event organised by Momentum in Brighton in the last few days 
and they are remarkable and adress one of the core issues of today’s radical politics. How can you combine the energy and autheticity of a movement 
with the need for party stuctures able to win and sustain power. We will shortly see whether Momentum still seem part of the answer to this question. But my
impresson at the event was that they are still an amazing  youthful energised grass roots base that you just can’t fake. 
The Tories keep trying but still cannot come close to matching them.  

In my oppinion Corbyn (aka Magic Grandpa) will ride again in November… here’s hoping.

David Garcia 
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