André Rebentisch on Tue, 20 Aug 2019 12:49:19 +0200 (CEST)

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Re: <nettime> It goes beyond the Meat Loaf Problem

Am 20.08.19 um 10:01 schrieb Carsten Agger:

> If Corbyn becomes prime minister in an interim government to avoid no
> deal, he will, on the one hand, actually get to inhabit 10 Downing
> Street; on the other, the mission will be strictly that of overseeing
> the interim period while figuring out what to do with Brexit, with his
> hands tied on his back with regard to the political reforms that are his
> (and Labour's, excluding the Blairites) political project. 

And there will be reelections in which MPs who supported the opposition
leader will not be put on the ballot again by their party.

If he was serious he had put forward a neutral person to become prime
minister and propose a government of unity. Dissenting MPs would form a
"Moderate" Group.

> Of course, it wouldn't have to turn out that way, but he would indeed be
> running that risk. Not to speak of the risk of alienating pro-Brexit
> Labour voters by supporting a new referendum.

A deep Brexit economic crisis would be helpful for the opposition in a
classic setup as the British system is in essence bipartisan.

Inviting the governing party MPs for a revolution would require a bit of

> As for the other options you outlined in a previous mail - there's no
> way around the backstop. If the UK leaves the EU, either it stays in the
> customs union, OR there is a hard bord in the Irish sea, OR there is a
> hard border between Ulster and the Republic of Ireland. The UK Tories
> would never accept a border in the Irish sea, and a hard border in
> Ireland could reignite the Troubles and kickstart another ten years of
> civil war in Ireland.

The EU Commission said the backstop was a backup measure that is
intended not to happen, The WA is the start of future relationship

Boris Johnson says please replace the backstop by "it", otherwise we
leave no deal. He has not proposed the "it", the "alternative measures".

> Of course, someone like Boris Johnson doesn't really give a shit about
> Ireland and would gladly take civil war if it means he can cling on to
> an imperial possession, but the UK as such has too much capital invested
> in the Good Friday agreement to make a hard Irish border a serious option.

No deal means hard border. So regardless what withdrawal agreement you
get will be softer border and better.

> Hence, the backstop. The problem is that Boris Johnson and the other
> right-wing Brexiteers want to eat their cake and have it too. And that
> is, of course, impossible.

It is technically impossible to have the withdrawal agreement and the
transition period after no deal. There a weakened UK could accede to a
different settlement without transition period.

With the WA they have time to negotiate their third country FTAs. With
ND they crash the E/I trade into WTO base line. Trump/Bolton say they
will offer an FTA with the chlorinated chicken, Pelosi says they would
block it for the Irish question. In any case, the bare minimum for a
superfast USUK FTA is three months.

China, US, India, EU27, ... how is that going to happen? Post-ND any
delay plays into the hands of their negotiating partners.

If UK refuses to pay their financial obligations that is the equivalent
to state bankruptcy and would affect their bond ratings.

It is not food or medical supply, this is what you prepare for and it
costs millions. It won't be the Irish border, ok have a hard border then
between two nations that actually don't want a border. The real bill
will comprise all the unknown unknowns.

Here is a known one: data flows. The UK needs an privacy equivalence
decision. Given that the UK stole the SIS data the EU would probably not
drop this bargaining chip for free.

If the UK gets a deep Brexit trade crisis the only quick fix is joining
EFTA, dropping its unrealistic red lines.

> Which means that the most likely scenario is that the UK WILL leave with
> no deal, and, as a consequence, there WILL be a hard border in Ireland.

Yes. Though the hard border is still the minor problem.

> And it is to avoid this clusterf**k that Corbyn s actually offering to
> stick his neck out and take on a premiership that's doomed to fail. I
> think he does deserve some credit for that, partisanships aside.

How does he make it possible for others to support him?

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