Re: <nettime> Francine Prose: America feels like a country on the brink of an authoritarian takeover (TG)

[Norbert Bollow via nettime-l <nettime-l@lists.nettime.org>]

On Tue, 27 Jan 2026 00:53:51 +0100
Felix Stalder via nettime-l <nettime-l@lists.nettime.org> wrote:

> So, I think the changes that the coalition fractures are real, 
> particularly if the AI motor stops pulling the economy.
> 
> But what then? It's clear that things will not go back; Biden tried
> to do that, and he failed; the conditions are just not there anymore.

In the US, I agree that it is very likely that the political coalition
which enables trumpism will fracture before November 2028, possibly
even already this year. In addition to what is happening in the
technological realm, in particular in relation to matters related to
energy as well as in relation to AI (IMO it will become clear in the
not very distant future that a lot of AI-related investments were based
on overly optimistic assumptions, in part driven by hopes for
“artificial general intelligence” which is IMO a pure con), I see also
a very real possibility of a mass movement in the US in opposition to
trumpism. Trumpism is not only a form of neo-royalism and a form of
fascism, but also a cult with a cult leader who happens to be
astoundingly incompetent in all areas besides bullying, trolling, and
conmanship. Of course the trumpist government will never voluntarily
change direction in any significant way just because of mass protests.
However, if protests are well-organized and nonviolent on the side of
the protesters, they can help build a mass movement that can create a
broadly-felt sentiment that change is inevitable, and when enough
people among Trump’s enabling system feel that, that feeling itself
will cause trumpism to lose its power.

I don’t see that as a happy end however. I’d expect someone from the
Democratic Party to win the November 2028 presidential elections in the
US, and then that person will preside over the mess that Trump left
behind. At that point, I’d expect the mess to be so big that even a
heroic effort by a competent person cannot turn things around quickly
enough. Many voters will be disappointed by economic improvements which
are happening only slowly, so that in 2032 or 2036 another populist
with fascist politics will be elected. And that person will have a much
better opportunity than Trump had to implement fascism in a long-term
way: Trump had the handicaps of extraordinary personal incompetence in
most regards, and of having inherited an economy that was in many
respects in decent shape. The next fascist will very likely be more
competent (an extremely low bar) and have a much better chance for the
economy to actually improve during the timeframe that is important for
whether society accepts the loss of democratic institutions and
freedoms. Also, that next fascist will benefit from what Trump has done
in regard to eroding democratic norms and institutions, as not
everything will be fully restored just a few years after the end of
Trump’s rule.

A key problem in all this in the US is that the political system there
makes it very difficult for more than two major political parties to
exist at the same time. If one of them has just been in power and most
voters didn’t like the experience, and the other has a presidential
candidate who is competent and a populist, but also a fascist, things
get very dangerous very fast.

I have more hope e.g. for Europe, where it’s much more plausible for new
political movements to emerge which can fill important gaps in what we
currently have.

Also, in relation to tech, including in particular AI and other aspects
of networked digital communication and data processing systems, Europe
and others (including in particular Canada and India) are realizing that
neither the US nor China can be trusted. I think that in this situation,
there could be an opportunity for establishing an influential
techno-social movement to push for justice and equity in the digital
realm (outside the US and China).

Greetings,
Norbert

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