Patrice Riemens on Thu, 14 Feb 2019 22:18:38 +0100 (CET)


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<nettime> Why I have stopped reading about Brexit



Aloha,

I was a Brexit addict. Till the day before yesterday. I used to spell the Guardian online and go thru all the vagaries of that great soap. But no longer. I might merely scan the headline, and may be even not.

I 'know' what is going to happen (even though you never can know). The Maybot is going to run the clock till March 27th, will probably not get her 'deal' (the same old one) passed, and Britain will leave the EU without an agreement. No problem for her since she will go down in history as the PM who has wrecked the no longer United Kingdom, but will have not split the Conservative party under her tenure. Which will end soon thereafter anyway, and will see the Conservative party split all the same.

Just as Labour will do, since Corbyn, who was doing a 'parcours sans fautes' as long as the un-negotiations between UK and EU were going on, but then cogently swerved out of the bend as the Maybot tired everyone out, and for exactly the same reason: fear of displeasing the more vociferous parts of his electorate, even though it's a minority, just as they are among the Tories. Now Corbyn's dream of what Le Monde Diplomatique termed 'a Brexit of the Left' lies in shambles, just as any hope of gaining a majority if a snap election is called (according to the latest surveys, Labour stands to lose 12 seats, and the Tories to gain 4 - looks like the Maybot's histrionic inertia pays ...) And oh yes, his party's gonna split all the same.

If ever a second referendum occurs - but it won't - my best guess is that England & Wales would vote to remain, though with a lesser margin than for Brexit in the first poll, and Scotland and N.Ireland will vote remain in even larger number than first. But for now you'd better bank on a second Scottish independence referendum, followed by then resumption of 'the Troubles', or the reunification of Ireland if it comes to the inevitable hard border.

So the chickens will have come to roost. What started, and remained, a uniquely English issue, and within that a purely Tory quarrel, will now leave all contenders f**** up as they deserve. And we in Europe will soldier on towards our next showdown: the European Elections in May.

Interesting times indeed.

Cheers to all, have a nice wee dram!
p+2D!

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