Re: <nettime> elections in Brazil / media

Hi Brian,

Like you, I picked up the link between fascism and neoliberalism; but this is to take refuge in convenient general categories. You have implied at various times here that the US may be on the brink of civil war, but this is only likely if we rely on comparative abstractions rather than concrete historical developments n one place. My friend describes a civil war that is already happening and its reality, for me, lies in his description of what is happening on the streets of Rio. Similar phenomena have gripped Brazil's cities for a decade or more; I recall police strikes in Salvador not long ago, for example. If you look at Germany's civil war after 1918 in the aftermath of the Russian revolution and in Weimar Berlin, a free-for-all broke out in the streets between ideologically driven factions. Nothing in the US today remotely compares with this, certainly not Chicago police killing black young men as usual. As my friend says, Brazil's is a counter-revolution against what the PT achieved; and this means extra-judicial killings, imprisonment and torture on a renewed scale.

There is something going on in our world at a general level and you are good at pointing out some of these features. But social war is historical and particular and comparison should be grounded in local history. Europe (especially countries like Hungary, Poland and Bulgaria, all with exaggerated historical myths of their own) is a strong candidate for its own version of civil breakdown, South Africa too, just to mention two places I know at first hand. But the American empire is strong and likely to become stronger; I don't see anything similar in your backyard.

Keith

On Sat, Oct 13, 2018 at 4:50 PM Brian Holmes <bhcontinentaldrift@gmail.com> wrote:

Andre, Keith -

Thank you both for your answers.

Keith's Brazilian friend wrote:
"The fascist alternative (Bolsonaro) became attractive to the establishment (economic, judicial and the traditional media) when an alliance was made with a neoliberal economist to take care of economic interests (Paulo Guedes)."

Damn, that's similar to the way corporate capital has made its deal with Trump. The treasury secretary, Munuchin, is Wall Street's man with the white supremacists. Fortunately for us here, there are no memories of a military dictatorship to stir. American nationalists can only be nostalgic for... World War II, which Steve Bannon thinks should now be fought against the Chinese.

There are probably Bannon-watchers on the list. It would be great to hear more about his international activities (Italy, etc). What I am left wondering is, how is the Brazilian military actually reacting to this candidacy and likely win? Are they ready to go into action in Brazilian cities? Or will some elements resist?

Around the world, people are rightly confused about whether neoliberalism is over, or not. Because on the economic level, very little has changed. I think "neoliberalism" is best understood as a cultural-political adaption to the major restructuring of the global economy in the 1970s, led by the US and the UK in response to declining profit rates, domestic turmoil and primary producer solidarity in what was then called the Third World. Neoliberalism crystallized as a political ideology in the 1980s, it was a shared project of center-right and center-left, it was hegemonic until 2008. Its capacity to secure political assent from majority populations has now collapsed. I do not see any chance for its revival.

Yet global economic restructuring, driven basically by the rise of China, is still in very early phases. And it will be literally buffeted by major impacts of climate change (for instance, has the insurance regime imploded yet? meaning, are the damage totals from hurricane Michael on the books yet?). "Economic nationalism" (Bannon's term) is a crude and dysfunctional response, on the cultural and political level, to this still-emergent economic restructuring under heavy weather. It is successful because the center and far left has nothing valid to propose.

My Argentinean friend Alejandro Meitin claims, pretty convincingly, that Latin American progressivism in the Southern Cone was utterly dependent on taxation of the soybean boom that was made possible by Chinese market demand. So in order to carry out its programs, it fed the financial-extractivist machine that turned against it. If you think about Clinton-Blair-Obama in those terms, you begin to get a clearer picture.

In most places, the struggle for hegemony is not over. What's happening right now in Brazil is showing us all what the outcome could look like, if more serious ideas are not able to convince the majorities.

soberly, Brian

On Sat, Oct 13, 2018 at 4:05 AM Keith Hart <keith@thememorybank.co.uk> wrote:
Thanks for the Current Affairs article, Andre, and for your commentary, Brian. I subscribe to CA, like it and this particular article. Your post led me to share it with a friend in Rio. Here is his response:

The article about Brazil is right about the dangers that we are facing. What it s not accurate is that Bolsonaro’s campaign is "improvised and informal". It is incredibly organized and scary. Steve Bannon is the inspiration (and in fact he is connected with one of Bolsonaro’s sons).
Bolsonaro is bad in arguing, so he avoids the public debates. Basically, the campaign circulates through closed whatsapp groups stirring up particular ghosts for each public: sexual education for children and communism for evangelicals; invasion of private property for rural producers circles and urban merchants; corruption for all of them, communism for all of them (yes, it looks that we are back in the 70s, with communism in its new form, Venezuela). Fake news on an umprecedented scale.
But these ploys work because the economic establishment and the "democratic" right worked to destabilize the Workers Party government since the last election in 2014. By denouncing corruption, they managed to take the PT out of government, but they did not manage to create an alternative candidate for the presidency. The fascist alternative (Bolsonaro) became attractive to the establishment (economic, judicial and the traditional media) when an alliance was made with a neoliberal economist to take care of economic interests (Paulo Guedes).
I think we are not going to change the result. Fascist times are coming. The most corrupt parties are behind Bolsonaro, as are the paramilitary groups that control vast areas of Rio de Janeiro (as militias, parallel groups composed of policemen and firefighters and other people who, with the excuse of combating criminality and drug dealers, operate as protection rackets. And the media, justice system and parties that could not change the hegemony of the Workers Party in an election let Bolsonaro take power in order to smash the PT. We are experiencing the reaction against the steps that we took before.
And the Museu Nacional is in ashes… It is a symbol of the times that are coming.
Via Keith

On Thu, Oct 11, 2018 at 12:19 AM Andre Mesquita <andrelmesquita@gmail.com> wrote:

Thank you Brian for all insights. My friend Frederico Freitas wrote this article about the causes and the context of this tragedy: https://www.currentaffairs.org/2018/10/the-brazilian-nostalgia-for-dictatorship

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