\(\(\(o\)\)\) on 27 Sep 2000 15:18:56 -0000


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Re: [Nettime-bold] spam vote mail


nope...


----- Original Message -----
From: "andrew garton [c2o]" <agarton@c2o.org>
To: <nettime-l@bbs.thing.net>
Sent: Wednesday, September 27, 2000 6:06 AM
Subject: [Nettime-bold] spam vote mail


> curious to know who on this list recieved the following:
>
> Date: Wed, 27 Sep 2000 15:25:17 +0200
> To: office@globalreflexion.org
> From: global reflexion <office@globalreflexion.org>
> Subject: Yugoslav elections
>
> ---
>
> trying to track down the source of this _loaded_ posting...
>
> seems to have originated from an xs4all account, perhaps tunnelled, but
i'm
> not enuf of a tech person 2 know...
>
> ---
>
> Received: (qmail 28254 invoked from network); 27 Sep 2000 14:33:07 -0000
> Received: from smtp8.xs4all.nl (194.109.127.134)
>   by c2o.org with SMTP; 27 Sep 2000 14:33:07 -0000
> Received: from internet (s340-modem162.dial.xs4all.nl [194.109.160.162])
> by smtp8.xs4all.nl (8.9.3/8.9.3) with SMTP id PAA20570;
> Wed, 27 Sep 2000 15:33:35 +0200 (CEST)
> Message-Id: <3.0.5.32.20000927152517.00b0faa0@pop.xs4all.nl>
> X-Sender: reflex@pop.xs4all.nl
>
> ---
>
> the posting states as follows (4 the record) it's a long one... it has a
> lot of convincing to do...:
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> To: office@globalreflexion.org
> From: global reflexion <office@globalreflexion.org>
> Subject: Yugoslav elections
> Mime-Version: 1.0
> Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1"
>
> The Global Reflexion Foundation contributes, according to her ability, to
> the distribution of information on international issues that in the media
> does not recieve proper attention or is presented in a distorted way. We
> receive information from different sources, that does not necessary
reflect
> our opinion. If you don't want to receive it, please send us an e-mail.
>
> *************************************************************************
> Wednesday, September 27, 2000
>
> 1. Election Report from Tanjug
> 2. International Observers Say Elections Were "Free and Fair"
> 3. Early Election Results: Big Defeat for U.S. Fifth Column Tactics - by
> Jared Israel
> 4. NATO Game-Plan: Destabilize Yugoslavia - by George Szamuely
> 5. Despite all, many stay true to Milosevic - by Lutz Kleveman
> 6. Yugoslavia After Milosevic - by Lord Owen.
> 7. U.S. House Approves $500 Million for Serb Opposition
>
> **************************************************
>
> Election Report from Tanjug.
>
>  BELGRADE, Sep 26 (Tanjug).- The Federal Electoral Commission held a
> session Tuesday chaired by Borivoje Vukicevic and announced the first
> preliminary results of Yugoslav presidential election on the basis of
> results  processed so far for 10,153 polling stations.
>  Turnout was 64.16 percent, or 5,036,478 out of the total electorate of
> 7,848,818. The five presidential candidates won the following number of
> votes:
>
>  - Miroljub Vidojkovic 40,765 or 0.80 percent
>
>  - Vojislav Kostunica 2,428,714 or 48.22 percent
>
>  - Slobodan Milosevic 2,026,478 or 40.23 percent
>
>  - Vojislav Mihailovic 130,598 or 2.59 percent
>
>  - Tomislav Nikolic 256,876 or 5.10 percent
>
>  Invalid ballots - 3.03 percent
>
>  According to these figures, a runoff presidential election is expected to
> be  held.
>
>  According to the preliminary results of the federal parliamentary
> elections,  the distribution of seats is as follows:
>
>  Chamber of Citizens:
>
>  - DOS (Democratic Opposition of Serbia) - 59
>
>  - SPS-JUL (Socialist Party of Serbia, Yugoslav Left) - 44
>
>  - SNP (Socialist National Party) - 28
>
>  - SRS (Serbian Radical Party) - 3
>
>  - SNS (Serbian People's Party) - 2
>
>  Two seats will go to SPO, DZVM or SSJ, depending on final  results.
>
>  Chamber of the Republics:
>
>  - DOS (Democratic Opposition of Serbia) - 10
>
>  - SPS-JUL (Socialist Party of Serbia, Yugoslav Left) - 7
>
>  - SRS (Serbian Radical Party) - 2
>
>  - SPO (Serbian Renewal Movement) - 1
>
>  - SNS (Serbian People's Party) - 1
>
>  The final results will be made public within the deadline set by the law,
> the Commission said.
>
>
> **************************************************
>
> Contradicting Western Leaders, International Observers Say Elections Were
> "Free and Fair"
>
> BELGRADE, Sep. 26 - Contradicting western leaders, a group of 210
> international observers from 54 countries has issued a statement in which
> it says the Yugoslav elections were generally "free and fair."  Here are
> excerpts from a press release we have just received from Belgrade:
>
> "The 210 international observers from 54 countries who have come to
> Yugoslavia to monitor the elections have among them current and former
> parliamentarians, representatives from political parties and
organizations,
> as well as scholars, journalists and activists. They have been able to
view
> the electoral activities from rallies to the actual voting on September 24
> and many have taken the opportunity meet with the leaders of various
> political parties and the different presidential campaigns.
>
> The observers feel strongly that they have had free, unobstructed access
to
> the relevant activities, and particularly to the voting at the 24 when
> observers visited polling stations in different parts of Yugoslavia,
> including Montenegro and Kosovo.
>
> In Montenegro, the 20 foreign observers witnessed an overall atmosphere of
> intimidation of the voters, originating from the government of Mr. Milo
> Djukanovic which is boycotting the elections. Everywhere there were huge
> billboards telling people not to vote.  These had the appearances of
> threats: "Don't vote or else..."
>
> Some of those who did vote, told the observers that they felt voting was
> risky for them, and could lead to the loss of jobs and other forms of
> harassment, as the polling stations were watched by the police and cameras
> not belonging to the media were pointed at the citizens coming to vote.
>
> In one poll, Serbian refugees from Kosovo told the observers that hundreds
> of them had been left off the voters' lists, although they had the
> necessary documentation to be able to vote. (This situation was brought to
> the attention of the Montenegrin Electoral Commission and a more detailed
> report will be forwarded to the Federal Electoral Commission of
Yugoslavia.)
>
> The observers note that the voting process overall was orderly and smooth
> although it involved three separate ballots with multiple choices. The
> voting process, in the opinion of many, was equal or superior to the ones
> in their own countries.
>
> The observers feel strongly that the so-called "international community"
> has been abusive of Yugoslavia and democratic principles, in declaring
> weeks ahead that the election will be "rigged," and heaping constant abuse
> at the authorities in Yugoslavia who are trying to carry out a
complicated,
> multi-level election in stressful conditions. This abuse has continued
> after the election, with leaders of Western countries declaring only a few
> hours after the election that Mr. Vojislav Kostunica had won, as if they
> would have had privileged access to the voting results!
>
> The observers leave Yugoslavia with a heightened respect for the integrity
> of the political process in the country. From what we have seen and heard,
> we believe that the results will truly reflect the will and the wishes of
> the people of Yugoslavia."
> Contact: Marjaleena Repo, Toronto & Saskatoon, Canada, e-mail:
> ccaftnat@sk.sympatico.ca.
>
> http://www.truthinmedia.org/Bulletins2000/tim2000-9-8.html
>
> *****************************************************
>
> Early Election Results: Big Defeat for U.S. Fifth Column Tactics
>
> by Jared Israel (9-26-2000)
> Below we have reprinted the preliminary Election Commission returns, as
> posted by Tanjug, the Yugoslav news agency. The amazing thing is that
> despite every sort of meddling, the U.S. has failed to bring down the
> Yugoslav government. Indeed, the government coalition now has a majority
in
> both houses of Parliament, which governYugoslavia.
>
>  This election has been quite something. Everyone admits that the
> "democratic" opposition is massively funded by US government agencies.
The
> only difference between this funding and what the CIA used to do in  the
> 1950s, 1960s and 1970s is that in this case some of the funding is  open.
> But some of it is not so open, with money smuggled into Yugoslavia in
> suitcases full of cash.(1)
>
>  The U.S. has subjected the Yugoslav people to the most extreme kind of
> intimidation. The 6th fleet is off the shore of Croatia conducting
> "maneuvers". Remember, Yugoslavia has been subjected to attacks by the
> U.S. and its allies and proxy forces for ten years, including 78 days of
> bombing. So the people have reason to be concerned about the 6th fleet.
> While holding this military stick over Yugoslav heads, the West has
> promised to lift sanctions and embrace Yugoslavia, if only the Yugoslavs
> get rid of Milosevich. This is a false promise. Several recent articles on
> Emperor's Clothes ( www.tenc.net ) deal with the punitive treatment
> Yugoslavia could expect if the US government gets its local agents in
power.
>
>  Today, the US House of Representatives voted to give the "independent
> democratic" opposition $105 MILLION to continue what the U.S. press is now
> calling its "populist" struggle. Not bad. They get to be populists plus
> millions of dollars to line their pockets because note that this money is
> not going to solve the problems of ordinary Yugoslavs, it is going to
> reward "democratic" opposition organizations and individuals. It is bribe
> money. The U.S. Establishment likes to get something for its bribes, in
> this case political control.
>
>  $105 million is a lot of money in Yugoslavia. First of all, it's a small
> country with 1/25th of the U.S. population. And it is very poor, compared
> to the U.S. $150 (US) a month is an OK salary in Yugoslavia; you can live
> on $150 about as well as someone making about $2000 in the U.S.
>
>  So to get an idea of the effect of $105 million in U.S. terms, multiply
by
> 25  (for population) and 13.333 (for salary.) This means that in
equivalent
> US dollars, Congress just voted to pay $35 BILLION to the "independent"
> opposition.
>
>  So the U.S. government is holding out a big (though entirely deceptive)
> carrot and a big stick. What a spirit of resistance, that under these
> circumstances the Yugoslavs would give a majority of seats in both houses
> of Parliament to the parties the U.S .wants them to dump. This spirit of
> resistance is what the U.S. and Germany have been trying to destroy for
ten
> long years. Indeed, Germany has been trying to break the Serbian spirit
for
> a hundred years, if not more.
>
>  Parliamentary Returns
>
>  The most important elections are those for the two houses of Parliament.
> There, the Government Coalition of the Socialist Party, the JUL and
> Montenegrin SNP have gained an absolute majority in Parliament.
>
>  Presidential Returns Give Kostunica a Plurality, Requiring a Runoff
Election
>
>  In the Presidential race, the Election Commission returns give both
> Milosevich and Kostunica under 40 and 48% respectively. Since both are
> under 50%, a run-off is required.
>
>  But a run-off would be bad for the DOS. Milosevich will most likely fare
> better in a run-off than he did in round one. Why? For one thing, he will
> get most of the Radical Party vote. More important, many of the more
> nationalist Serbs didn't vote in round one because they didn't want to
vote
> for Milosevich, but they will vote for him in round two because they see
> Kostunica's coalition as tied to the U.S. Kostunica's absolute numbers may
> go up, but his percentlocas of the total could well go down.
>
>  The U.S. has a problem. Even if Kostunica were to win the Presidential
> vote, the government is controlled by Parliament, and Parliament is
solidly
> in the hands of the Governing coalition. Therefore the US is using its
> "democratic" opposition to try and destabilize the situation and bring the
> government down.
>
>  Djindjic Attacks Official Returns, Followed by Kostunica
>
>  At approximately 3:00 Eastern U.S. time Democratic Party leader Zoran
> Djindjic publicly attacked the Election Commission returns, claiming they
> were false. He provided no evidence. This is consistent, of course. Prior
> to the elections, Djindjic and the State Department and Robin Cook and
> every Western newsman assured us that Milosevich would "steal" the
> elections, but never indicated how, so why provide evidence now that "the
> deed has been done"?
>
>  Djindjic said his coalition would demand to see the official returns and
> "compare them with ours, one by one if necessary" and that they would
> reject a runoff because "we will respect the result that was registered on
> September 24." ('Reuters, 9-26-2000, 3.08 PM)
>
>  An hour later, the official candidate of the "democratic" coalition spoke
> up. Vojislav Kostunica followed Djindjic's lead, echoing the charges of
> fraud and the refusal to participate in the runoff. ('Reuters, 9-26-2000,
> 4.10 PM)
>
>  Kostunica was picked to be the "democratic" coalition's candidate because
> he had not been discredited (like Mr. Djindjic) as an agent of the U.S.
> government. But as we have pointed out, (2) Kostunica's character is not
> the issue because Kostunica is not the master of his fate. He relies on
the
> DOS coalition and various "democratic" organizations, like the Group of 17
> economists. They in turn rely on the U.S. government. How can Kostunica
> buck these forces? They have the U.S. money; they have the organizations;
> and they have the media. He has Kostunica and a tiny political party.
>
>  The Golden Rule: He Who Has the Gold Makes The Rules
>
>  The U.S. has given tens of millions of dollars to the "democratic"
> opposition. Kostunica says he has taken none of this money. If this is
> true, then Zoran Djindjic and the other "independent" democrats are
getting
> it all. Djindjic has an organization able to smuggle cash across the
border
> ("in suitcases" according to the N.Y. Times) (1) And the G-17 economists,
a
> leading component of the US-funded opposition, has the ties to the
> International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.
>
>  So Zoran Djindjic speaks at 3pm and Vojislav Kostunica echoes him at 4.
> There you have it: a small example but one that reflects the true relation
> of forces. Whatever Mr. Kostunica really is, whatever he really wants,
> whatever he has convinced himself he is doing, he is only the tail. The
dog
> is Zoran Djindjic, the G-17 economists, Vesna Pesic, Radio B292 and the
> rest of the independent democratic civil society peace activist
opposition,
> and they all work for the USA
>
>   (1) Here is the quote from the 'NY Times' on how "democratic" opposition
> money gets into Yugoslavia:
>
>       "The money from the West is going to most of the institutions
>       that the government attacks for receiving it - sometimes in
>       direct aid, sometimes in indirect aid like computers and
>       broadcasting equipment, and sometimes in suitcases of cash
>       carried across the border between Yugoslavia and Hungary
>       or Serbia and Montenegro. Most of those organizations and
>       news media could not exist without foreign aid."
>       ('N.Y. Times', 9-20-2000.
>
>  For the complete 'N.Y. Times' story and a commentary from Emperor's
> Clothes, see "'NY Times' Confirms Charge: U.S. Gov't Meddles in
Yugoslavia"
> at http://emperors-clothes.com/news/erlang.htm
>
>  (2) See 'US ARROGANCE AND YUGSOLASV ELECTIONS' at
> http://emperors-clothes.com/engl.htm
>
> **************************************************
>
> NATO Game-Plan: Destabilize Yugoslavia
>
> by George Szamuely (9-27-2000)
> It is entirely appropriate that US policymakers, their British parrots,
and
> assorted NATO toadies are already debating the future course of
Yugoslavia.
> Having first denounced last Sunday's elections as totally meaningless
since
> they would inevitably be "stolen" by President Slobodan Milosevic, they
> then turned around and decided, before any results had been announced,
that
> Vojislav Kostunica had won outright on the first ballot. So much then for
> Milosevic's chicanery. NATO's high-fives at the election results are
> reminiscent of the inane rejoicing that followed the end of the Kosovo
> bombing last year. It had taken 11 weeks to defeat a tiny power like
> Yugoslavia. And even then it was NATO that had to make the concessions,
not
> Milosevic. Yet the Brits and the Americans celebrated, as if it were
VE-Day
> all over again. The election results show a far from convincing win in the
> first round of voting for Kostunica, as well as a victory for the
> Government coalition in the Yugoslav parliament. NATO claims vindication.
> But if it has indeed "won"-and this is by no means clear-then it is only
> after a massive and unprecedented effort at
>  intimidation. The Serbs were first bribed to vote the "right" way-thus
the
> proverbial "carrot". And if that failed to do the trick, there was the
> threat of military action-the "stick".
>
>  It is hard to take any elections seriously under such circumstances. How
> can you cast a vote for the candidate of your choice if there is a chance
> of cruise missiles blowing up your home if you vote the "wrong" way? The
> best NATO can boast is that it avoided total humiliation. Incidentally, it
> is meaningless to talk of NATO any longer-today it is nothing more than an
> echo chamber for yapping Pentagon and State Department officials, and
their
> fierce little pups in London. Here is the glorious record of NATO heroism:
> $75 million from Washington to bankroll the Yugoslav opposition. Millions
> more to aid municipalities deemed not under Milosevic's control. Millions
> to line Montenegrin President Milo Djuakonovic's pockets. US and EU
> promises to lift sanctions if Milosevic is voted out. Then there are the
> threats: Any result other than a defeat for Milosevic will be considered
by
> Washington to be the product of fraud. The US reserves the right to
> intervene to prevent such a calamity.
>
>  Today, the United States is demanding that Milosevic steps down, even
> though the Yugoslav Federal Electoral Commission is saying that Kostunica
> did not receive 50 percent of the vote. The US Government is accepting
> without question the claims of the Democratic Opposition that Kostunica
won
> 55 percent to Milosevic's 35 percent. Yet these figures are not based on
> any vote count, but on the reports of opposition poll watchers-hardly a
> disinterested bunch of observers. There were no American observers at the
> polls. The Russians were there. They claim they witnessed no election
> irregularities. Clearly, the orders emanating from Washington, and relayed
> through Budapest, is that the "opposition" take to the streets and demand
> Milosevic's resignation. Such protests could well elicit a violent
> response. This, in turn, could be seized on by the United States as a
> threat to the region, justifying military intervention. Alternatively, the
> "opposition" may be encouraged to boycott a run-off and establish a
> Government in exile-perhaps in Podgorica. Such a Government would enjoy
> diplomatic recognition and would in due course, act as a NATO stooge
urging
> an invasion of Yugoslavia to remove the "illegitimate" Government in
Belgrade.
>
>  In the meantime, military threats are increasing. "We...need to make sure
> that Milosevic understands there is very substantial capacity in the
> region"-thus British Foreign Secretary Robin Cook Britain has 15  warships
> in the Mediterranean near Yugoslavia operating in two training groups.
They
> are manned by 5,000 sailors, Royal Marines and aircrew. They include the
> aircraft carrier Invincible, which carries Harrier jump-jet fighters, the
> destroyer HMS Liverpool, helicopter assault ship HMS Ocean, the amphibious
> assault ship HMS Fearless and 10 more ships including minesweepers, a
> tanker, a store ship and Northumberland, a type-23 frigate. US and Croat
> forces are holding joint naval exercises 150 miles northwest of
Montenegro.
> They include a simulated Marine landing on an island in the Adriatic Sea.
> On September 28, Romania and Bulgaria are planning a joint exercise at the
> Romanian Danube port of Turnu Magurele. The plan includes the construction
> of a pontoon bridge across the Danube and the evacuation of the local
> population.
>
>  On Monday, the US House of Representatives passed a bill authorizing $500
> million in financial aid for opposition groups in Yugoslavia. $500 million
> is a huge amount of money in a country as small, impoverished and as
> burdened by economic sanctions as Yugoslavia. Funds of this magnitude
> cannot but corrupt the most virtuous of nations. Remember, this is a
> Republican-controlled House of Representatives, which normally protests
> foreign aid, debt relief, and handouts in general.
>
>  It is not hard to imagine what the future holds in store for Yugoslavia.
> Suppose the United States gets what it wants. Slobodan Milosevic steps
> aside and Kostunica takes over. There is a peaceful transition, and both
> the United States and the European Union lift sanctions as promised. In no
> time at all, the United States will demand the surrender of Milosevic to
> The Hague. Indeed, it will be an election issue, with George W. Bush
> baiting the Clinton Administration for being insufficiently zealous in its
> pursuit of Milosevic. Kostunica will probably refuse these demands. Soon
> the media will fall into lockstep parroting the line that as long as
> Milosevic is residing in Belgrade, he is the one who is really running the
> show. Every day journalists will be informing us that Kostunica is nothing
> more than Milosevic's puppet. Congress will then vote to cut off all
> further funds to Yugoslavia. The EU will follow suit. At that point,
> US-financed demonstrations will take place in Belgrade and other major
> cities. The protesters will demand that Milosevic be handed over to the
> Tribunal. If the US gets lucky, there will be some violence. At that
point,
> Washington will summon Kostunica and tell him that he is jeopardizing
> Balkan stability. If he wants to stay in power, he will have to play ball
> with the United States. Milosevic must be handed over. The Rambouillet
> Accords will be put back on the table, along with Appendix B and the
> referendum on Kosovo independence. And while we are at it, Vojvodina will
> have to be offered a "special" status.
>
>  One thing is for sure, the United States will not simply permit
Yugoslavia
> to walk away and happily enjoy the prestige that comes from having defied
> the world's greatest powers for over 10 years. Yugoslavia will be made to
> pay.
> www.tenc.net [Emperor's Clothes]
>
> ****************************************************
>
> Despite all, many stay true to Milosevic
>
> By LUTZ KLEVEMAN
> PRISTINA, YUGOSLAVIA
> Wednesday 27 September 2000
>
> The many bars and cafes along the main road in Mitrovica, a drab
industrial
> town in the north of Kosovo, were packed on Monday night with bearded
Serbs
> watching the evening news from Belgrade. Many nodded in sombre
satisfaction
> when the newsreader on RTS state television reported "a clear lead" for
> President Slobodan Milosevic midway through the vote-counting.  Mr
> Milosevic may have sent their sons into four deadly wars, impoverished
> them, beaten them and taken them hostage in an isolated pariah state, but
> that is not how millions of Serbs see his 13-year rule. Random exit polls
> in the "other" Serbia outside the opposition stronghold, Belgrade, showed
> widespread support for the Serb strongman, casting doubts on Western
> beliefs that put Mr Milosevic's popularity down solely to propaganda and
> fear.
> "Of course I voted for Milosevic because he defends the freedom of our
> country," said one voter leaving a polling station. The villain in the
> people's mind is NATO, not Mr Milosevic. While the nationalist frenzy of
> the early 1990s might be abating, Serbs are still deeply divided between
> Western-oriented, mostly urban, democratic reformers and strong Slavic
> do-it-alone patriots.
> Members of the first camp feel that by bombing the country and imposing
> economic sanctions, the West has not made life easier for them. "Nothing
> has helped Milosevic and hurt the chances for democracy in Serbia more
than
> the bombing," said Milan Samardzic, a student activist. Alexander Mitic, a
> Belgrade-based journalist, explained: "The experiences of the last 10
> years, the wars and the poverty, have made Serbs a very fearful people.
> They cling on to whatever seems a certainty - including Milosevic."
> Serbs have become obsessed with even the most outlandish conspiracy
> theories. A front-page story in one tabloid blamed Yugoslavia's unusually
> hot summer on NATO planes blowing away clouds with laser rays to torture
> the population. The issue was sold out within hours. Even most Serbs in
> Kosovo, who have felt the disastrous consequences of Mr Milosevic's
> policies most painfully, still support him. Father Sava Janjic of the
> Gracanica Monastery recalled: "He appeared like a savior to the Serbs in
> Kosovo - and he still does, despite all."
> -TELEGRAPH- Copyright  The Age Company Ltd 2000
>
> ******************************************************************
>
> "The hardest problem to resolve may be Kosovo.
> Mr. Kostunica will not find it easy to get his fellow Serbs to
> accept independence for Kosovo -- yet the Albanians will settle
> for nothing else. The key is to offer the Serbs territorial
> compensation for the loss of Kosovo, and that means looking in a
> wider Balkan context at the international borders that have not
> won acceptance, and negotiating territorial adjustments to
> achieve Balkan-wide stability."
>
> September 26, 2000 - The Wall Street Journal
>
> Yugoslavia After Milosevic
>
> By David Owen.
>
> The wisest course for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization countries to
> take in the immediate aftermath of the Yugoslav presidential elections
> would be to refrain from pontificating and gesturing. If past form serves
> as a guide, such actions only make it more difficult for the Serbian
people
> to bring about an end to the Milosevic regime. Instead, the West should
> allow Vojislav Kostunica, the undoubted winner, to guide them on his
> post-election strategy.
>
> In Mr. Kostunica, at long last, we have a credible Serb leader. He is too
> nationalistic, inevitably, but was fortunately never a Communist. We must
> givehim the political leeway he needs to heal political wounds and bind
> Serbia together.
>
> Early today, the Milosevic government will go through the charade of
> announcing the election
> results, and the West will be certain to condemnthe inevitable rigging of
> the ballot. But the reactions of the Serbian people, and the strategies
> they adoptin their struggle to oust Mr. Milosevic, are likely to be less
> predictable.
>
> The key, in the next few days and weeks, will be the loyaltiesof the armed
> forces, which could be broken by prolonged peaceful demonstrations. But
the
> police force, which has been turned into a paramilitary body by Mr.
> Milosevic, is unlikely to bend to demonstrators. They have been singled
out
> by Mr. Milosevic for special treatment for more than a decade, and are
> relatively well-paid and well-equipped. I would expect them to stay loyal
> to Mr. Milosevic. I fear they will, as usual, try to engender panic by
> savagely attacking some demonstrators. A lot will depend on whether they
> show more restraint than has hitherto been their wont.
>
> Two months ago, Mr. Milosevic changed the constitution to have direct
> elections for the Yugoslav presidency, scrapping the previous system of
> indirect elections by the federal parliament.
> He expected the opposition to remain divided. But he miscalculated, and
the
> 17 opposition parties came together to support Mr. Kostunica. The
> Montenegrin government decided to boycott the election, leaving the result
> to be determined by Serbs, whether in Montenegro or in Serbia itself. In
> United Nations-administered Kosovo, polling stations for the election were
> open, but there were few Serbs left to vote. The truth inYugoslavia for
> many years has been that it doesn't matter who votes, but rather, who
> counts the votes.
>
> Why did the Milosevic regime highlight the constitutional provision that a
> new president would only take office next summer? It is almost certain
that
> Mr. Milosevic considered the possibility that he might be defeated by such
> a large margin that even he would not be able to escape its message. In
> such circumstances, it would be typical of him to aim to stay on for
> another nine months in the belief that he could broker a graceful exit.
>
> Mr. Milosevic is at his most inventive when cornered. He is, after all,
the
> man who went to war with NATO well aware that all he could expect to do
was
> to negotiate after a period of fighting. He knew the Yugoslav forces could
> not win, but he also knew that the Serb parliament would never have
> accepted the terms of the Rambouillet accord.
>
> The fact that Secretary of State Madeleine Albright advised President
> Clinton that Mr. Milosevic would fold after a few days of bombing was a
> testament to how little she understood Serbian intransigence. After 98
days
> of bombing, Mr. Clinton negotiated a settlement with Russian involvement
> under which -- in contrast to Rambouillet -- the U.N., not NATO,
> administered Kosovo. Furthermore, NATO troops did not enter Kosovo through
> Serbia, and the provisions on returning indicted war criminals were toned
> down. Many of the Serb tank commanders rolled out of Kosovo still eager to
> have a go at NATO, but Mr. Milosevic judged it was better to keep his
armed
> forces virtually intact. We in NATO were spared any casualties.
>
> Apart from former Secretary of State Cyrus Vance, I have probably spent
> more hours negotiating with Mr. Milosevic than any other Western
> politician. Everything is negotiable, but he will provoke a civil war
> rather than end up facing trial for war crimes in The Hague.
>
> I suspect that it will take all of Mr. Clinton's renowned political
> instincts to script an exit for Mr. Milosevic, one in which a civil war is
> avoided in Montenegro, or in Serbia itself. The Serb president will cling
> to office like a limpet. Mr. Clinton would be well advised to consult
> closely with Vladimir Putin. Moscow knows the Serb mindset far better than
> Washington.
>
> The outlines of a settlement are not hard to discern. Mr. Milosevic has to
> accept that Mr. Kostunica has won the election, and that the latter must
> become president soon. Mr. Kostunica has already said he will not send Mr.
> Milosevic to The Hague, and the West should have enough common sense not
to
> push him on this point.
>
> That does not require the Hague court to grant an amnesty, but it would
> mean that NATO countries would refrain from applying sanctions against the
> Kostunica government if it were to allow Mr. Milosevic to stay on Yugoslav
> territory without being arrested. Perhaps the best solution would be for
> Mr. Milosevic to be sent as Ambassador to the Yugoslav embassy in Beijing.
> China would not object.
>
> In view of the massacre at Srebrenica, for which he bears personal
> responsibility, I cannot see how the West can avoid demanding that Gen.
> Ratko Mladic be sent to The Hague. Gen. Mladic, a hero of the Serbian
armed
> forces, lives quite openly in Belgrade, and has been seen attending soccer
> matches in the city. His extradition would prove deeply unpopular with the
> army, so we may have to acquiesce in the existing head of the Yugoslav
> armed forces, Gen. Nebojsa Pavkovic, being spared an international trial.
>
> Loud objections will be heard, of course, which assert that any settlement
> that does not involve Mr. Milosevic's head would be a sell-out. Yet the
> price of peace in the Balkans may well be that high, though like most
> people, it sticks in my gullet that Mr. Milosevic might escape trial.
>
> Recovery could be quite quick in a new Yugoslavia, provided the West
really
> does help in its reconstruction and that Mr. Milosevic does not
destabilize
> the country. The hardest problem to resolve may be Kosovo. Mr. Kostunica
> will not find it easy to get his fellow Serbs to accept independence for
> Kosovo - yet the Albanians will settle for nothing else. The key is to
> offer the Serbs territorial compensation for the loss of Kosovo, and that
> means looking in a wider Balkan context at the international borders that
> have not won acceptance, and negotiating territorial adjustments to
achieve
> Balkan-wide stability.
>
> (Lord Owen has served as Britain's foreign secretary and as the European
> Union's peace envoy to Yugoslavia.)
>
> ****************************************************
>
> U.S. House Approves $500 Million for Serb Opposition
>
> WASHINGTON, Sep. 25 - For nine years, the Serb democratic opposition
> received next to nothing by way of financial aid from Washington.  Then as
> we revealed last week, they were funded to the tune of $77 million.  Now
> that figure has jumped up to $500 million, according to a Sep. 25 Reuters
> report.
>
> In a move meant to put more pressure on Yugoslav President Slobodan
> Milosevic after Western nations declared him beaten at the polls, the
House
> of Representatives passed a bill on Monday by a two-thirds majority in a
> voice vote authorizing $500 million in financial aid for Serbian
opposition
> groups, the Reuters wire said.
>
> Although the outcome of Sunday's Yugoslav elections will not be announced
> until later this week, the United States, Britain, Germany, France and
> other members of the European Union all declared on Monday that Milosevic
> had lost to main opposition challenger Vojislav Kostunica.
>
> http://www.truthinmedia.org/Bulletins2000/tim2000-9-8.html
>
> ******************************************************
>
> Global Reflexion - Amsterdam - The Netherlands
>
>
>
>
>
> c2o
>  - Community Communications Online       | Andrew Garton
>  - PO Box 304                            | agarton@c2o.org
>  - Richmond 3121 Victoria AUSTRALIA      | http://www.c2o.org
>  - Tel/Fax. +61 3 9486 9765
>  - ABN. 33 078 575 238
>
>
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